Prediction: Coming Soon To New Orleans

Multi-Modal Transportation By Necessity
by Larry Lagarde

Hurricane Katrina has turned New Orleans into a virtual petri dish of experiments in urban living and sustainability (examples include Brad Pitt's trend setting "Make It Right" housing project, local musician Andreas Hoffman's amazing distribution & installation of 200,000+ compact flourescent light bulbs via Green Light New Orleans and the help of literally tousands of volunteers from across the nation). As the 5th anniversary of Katrina fast approaches, the 2010 census is being tabulated and major Katrina rebuilding efforts wind down, where this leaves New Orleans is uncertain. There is one sure thing though; New Orleans will continue to function as an experiment in urban renewal and/or survival out of sheer necessity. As an example, look at what's happening with mass transit.

In 2004, New Orleans Regional Transit Agency (NORTA) was one of the most successful transit agencies in the nation (in regards to revenue earned by passenger boardings). Hurricane Katrina decimated NORTA's fleet and facilities. Former riders were shipped out of New Orleans to destinations unknown, ending up in almost every state in the union.

While NORTA dealt with how to rebuild their transit fleet and facilities, many Katrina evacuees had their own problems. Without resources to return to New Orleans, evacuees simply remained in Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Memphis and elsewhere where they built their lives anew. As a result, NORTA's boardings went from a pre-Katrina high in 2004 of 130,000/day to almost 0/day in fiscal year 2006. By fiscal year 2009, with the help of special Section 70-25 subsidies from the Federal Transit Administration, boardings had climbed back to 40,000/day and were on track for continual growth but the money was running out.

This week, transit agencies in the New Orleans area were notified that 33% reductions in transit funding should be expected to take place as of FY 2012 (Oct. 1, 2011). Today, NORTA announced that the Lil Easy transit shuttle (a service initiated in 2009 in the 9th Ward and later expanded to other depopulated neighborhoods) was being terminated. The timing of these 2 announcements cannot be coincidental.

With NORTA routes and timetables already reduced to the bone, additional cuts in service will place NORTA and Veolia (NORTA's private partner) in a disturbing position. The city's streetcar light rail lines are great revenue generators as tourists love to ride them; however, the streetcars are of limited use to locals. Thus, cutting streetcars means substantial, additional revenue cuts. On the other hand, cutting bus routes and/or schedules will have a lesser impact on revenues but will severely restrict local ridership. Transfers between routes will take longer. Minimum wage earners at local grocery stores, big box stores, hotels, etc. could loose their jobs due to excessive tardiness.

So while coping with budget shortfalls will not be easy, I predict that the streetcars will be saved due to their historic, iconic and touristic appeal, leaving locals to work out their own options. And one option that will be used more is a multi-modal transportation approach involving bicycles to cover the longer "first & last mile" distances to get to or from the transit stop.

NORTA's entire bus fleet has bike racks for 2 full size bikes so at least 2 cyclists/bus can be accommodated; but a more practical approach would be to ride a bike that folds compactly so it can be brought aboard the bus. This way, the bike/transit rider will not be refused from boarding if the bike rack is full. And if the transit bus has a mechanical problem, the cyclist can simply ride their bike the rest of the way.

NORTA just scheduled a news conference for 6pm this evening. The details of the conference have not been announced but if it's to announce future service reductions, you read about it here first!