Expensive Gasoline's Bright Side: Fewer Fatalities

by Larry Lagarde

As long as transportation in the USA relies on burning fossil fuels, gas prices will continue to squeeze consumer pocketbooks; however, there is a bright side: fewer traffic fatalities.

Although increases in vehicle safety have been incrementally decreasing the rate of deaths/miles traveled, traffic fatalities in the USA have hovered around 41,500 deaths/year for over a decade. Look into why this is happening and you'll see that people drive more in the USA than ever before (3.014 trillion miles in 2006 - the last year that stats were available). But that's changing.

According to a story last month in the Wall Street Journal, gas consumption dropped 1.1% earlier this year because high gas prices are causing motorists to drive less. Given that surging world demand for gasoline is expected to keep pushing gas prices higher ($3.60/gal by this summer and $5/gal within 3 years), expectations are that these changes in driving behavior are permanent.

Decreased Driving = Fewer Traffic Fatalities
Based on the latest statistics available, if motorists drive 1% less/year and vehicle safety remains the same, traffic fatalities should fall by 500/year (10,000 fewer injuries too). According to figures from the National Safety Council, such a drop in fatalities alone would save over $550 million in medical expenses, wage and productivity losses, motor vehicle damage, administrative costs, and employers’ uninsured costs.

As high gas prices force more motorists to replace their heavy, gas guzzling SUV's & pickup's with lighter, more efficient models, chances are that vehicle safety will continue to improve, causing fatalities to fall even faster.

Notes:
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: US National Fatality Statistics
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx

National Safety Council. "Estimating the Costs of Unintentional Injuries, 2004."
http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/estcost.htm

Wall Street Journal: Americans Start to Curb Their Thirst for Gasoline
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120451858896807177.html

USA Today: "Gas prices slip, but could hit $4"
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-04-08-gas-prices_N.htm

New York Times: "The True Costs of S.U.V.'s"
http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/people/hal/NYTimes/2003-12-18.html

Accident Costs and Benefit Cost Analysis
http://www.dmv.ca.gov/about/profile/rd/resnotes/accident.htm

CIBC's Jeff Rubin: Crude to hit $150/barrel in 4 years
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/293042